The patterns

What we see in the filings, written down as a formula so it can be measured rather than argued about. Each pattern is named, dated, sourced, and tied to the rule that runs it — or marked as a rule not yet written. This is knowledge being built in the open, and the people who arrange these deals are named beside it. That is what makes a market.

Every entry carries a name and a date. Who saw it, when it was written, and where it was first published. The page is searchable by both, and nothing on it is ever silently rewritten — a change gets a new date under the old one.

A pattern is a measurement, not an accusation. Every one of these describes lawful conduct that is common in the market. A pattern firing means a filing is worth reading. It never means anyone did anything wrong.

Warrants only. Nothing here evaluates a company’s products, its science or its people’s intentions.

The patterns, as of 11 September 2026

The triggered short

First published 18 July 2026

What you see: A warrant financing closes. The warrant shares, if all exercised, are a large share of the company. The price the market can bear for the enlarged company is lower than the price the day before, and anybody who can borrow the stock knows it before the exercise happens.
The formula: Pdilution = ( shares × price + warrants × exercise ) ÷ ( shares + warrants ) Pfinal = Pdilution × exp[ −λ · ( Q ÷ L ) ] share of company = warrants ÷ ( shares + warrants ) overhang = warrants ÷ shares gap = ( exercise ÷ price ) − 1 Four figures off a 10-Q: shares outstanding, the current price, the warrant shares and the exercise price. Q is the net selling pressure the exercise would put on the market, L a liquidity benchmark (average daily volume, say), and λ the price-impact assumption the reader sets. Pdilution is arithmetic; Pfinal is a model, and it says so. A warrant is normally exercised only above the exercise price; where a holder exercises below it, the reason is usually written in the agreement.
Example: Theriva Biologics (TOVX). The worked numbers are on the overhang calculator and the sample verdict is here.
Source: Mark Nejmeh. First published in a press release concerning Theriva Biologics, 18 July 2026. Restated on triggeredshort.com/model.html.
[[ The press release text, or a link to it, goes here so the original is one click away. ]]
The rule: R3 · the overhang R4 · the reprice — runs where the hand-built record exists. The four figures for every company on the wire are the gap named on the rules page.

The quiet deal

Written 11 September 2026

What you see: A warrant deal is filed with the SEC and neither side says a word. No press release from the company; none from the buyer. The filing is the only record that it happened. A deal both parties are pleased with usually gets announced by at least one of them.
The formula: silence = 1 if PRissuer(t, t+N) = 0 and PRcounterparty(t, t+N) = 0 = 0 otherwise where t is the filing date, N the window in trading days (start at 5), and PR(·) the count of press releases naming the deal in that window. A binary. It becomes a pattern when it repeats: quiet share = Σ silence ÷ deals over a company’s deals, or over a counterparty’s. A counterparty whose deals are quiet across many issuers is the finding — and that is a name, not a number.
Example: The GOOG / MRVL warrant deal, as noted by the founder.
[[ The filing date, the accession number, and the two parties’ newsroom pages for the window — so the zero can be checked. ]]
Source: Mark Nejmeh, 11 September 2026, dictated.
The rule: Not yet a rule — needs a press-release feed for the issuer and the counterparty. Listed under what it misses on the rules page until it is built.

Paid to convert early, again and again

Written 11 September 2026

What you see: The company cuts the exercise price so holders will exercise now, and hands them new warrants for doing it — often more than they exercised. Then it does it again.
The formula: inducements(t) = count of filings carrying "warrant inducement" or "inducement agreement" up to date t habit = 1 if inducements ≥ 3 premium = ( new exercise price − close on the day exercised ) ÷ close The premium is measured on the day they exercised, not the day they repriced. Repricing is an offer; exercising is the act. On TOVX those were consecutive sessions, $0.43 then $0.42, and measuring the wrong day reports 26% where the documented figure is 29%.
Example: TOVX — four repricings on file; the last exercised 29% above the market.
Source: Mark Nejmeh; the measurement rule caught in testing, 11 September 2026.
The rule: W4 · paid to convert early R4 · the last reprice

The same names

Written 11 September 2026

What you see: The same placement agent, the same issuer counsel, the same buyers, on deals at companies that have nothing to do with each other. The deals look alike because the same people wrote them.
The formula: reach(party) = number of distinct issuers the party appears on weight(party) = Σ filings across those issuers finding = party where reach ≥ 2, ranked by reach then weight Computed, never asserted. “Leslie Marlow, issuer counsel” is a name. “Leslie Marlow, issuer counsel — also on 6 other issuers, 250 filings” is the finding.
Example: The parties on the TOVX sample, with their reach, once the record is loaded.
Source: Mark Nejmeh; built into the verdict worker 11 September 2026.
The rule: R6 · who arranged it

More patterns are added as they are seen. Each one gets a number, a name, a date, a formula, and the rule it becomes.